Global Accountancy Institute Micro Trend Trades Analysis for Bitcoin
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Global Accountancy Institute Weekly Commentary for Bitcoin by Dr. Glen Brown

Updated: September 3, 2022

Bitcoin is the world’s most-traded cryptocurrency which represents a massive share of the cryptocurrency market. It was the first cryptocurrency that was introduced to the public and has therefore the most developed infrastructure. It is often considered to be a trendsetter in the cryptocurrency world. Bitcoin essentially created an alternative asset class and can be used in portfolio hedging strategies, especially during turbulent markets. (Source: Trading View)

At Global Accountancy Institute, Inc., we believe that each trade should have a name. Hence within our trading models, we have four(4) types of trades that we execute daily.

These are:

  • Global Micro-Trend Trades
  • Global Short-Term Trend Trades
  • Global Medium-Term Trend Trades
  • Global Long-Term Trend Trades.

The Global Micro-Trend Trades are executed by our Proprietary Global Algorithmic Trading Software(GATS) using Sub-System #0,#1 & #2 which trade in the direction of our Four Hour Time Bars(FHTB) with a Trailing Stop Loss given by four(4) times the Daily Average True Range(DATR) using period 25.

The Global Short-Term Trend Trades are executed by our Proprietary Global Algorithmic Trading Software(GATS) using Sub-System #3  which trade in the direction of our Daily Time Bars(DTB) with a Trailing Stop Loss given by five(5) times the Daily Average True Range(DATR) using period 25.

The Global Medium-Term Trend Trades are executed by our Proprietary Global Algorithmic Trading Software(GATS) using Sub-System #4 which trade in the direction of our Weekly Time Bars(WTB) with a Trailing Stop Loss given by six(6) times the Daily Average True Range(DATR) using period 25.

The Global Long-Term Trend Trades are executed by our Proprietary Global Algorithmic Trading Software(GATS) using Sub-System #5 & #6 which trade in the direction of our Monthly Time Bars(MTB) with a Trailing Stop Loss equal to seven(7) and eight(8) times the Daily Average True Range(DATR) using period 25.

Our Global Algorithmic Trading Software (GATS) #5 on September 03, 2022, indicates the following for Bitcoin

The Long Term Trend (LTT): Bearish
The Medium Term Trend (MTT): Bearish
The Short Term Trend (STT): Bearish
The Micro Trend (MT): Bearish

We are currently Bearish on Bitcoin and hence decide to execute a long term Bearish trade with a potential trade entry signal as follows:

Global Potential Trade Entry Signal #1:17575
Global Maximum Catastrophe Hard Stop Loss GAP:6613
Global Maximum Catastrophe Trailing Stop:6613
Global Minimum Profit Target: 6613
Global Maximum Profit Target: 13226

Current Price as at September 03,2022:19788

Bitcoin could drop by a further $6613 to a low of $13,175 within a few weeks if we break the current support level at $17575.
$13175 is a dangerous level since many bulls will give up and sell Bitcoin.

RISK WARNING!

There is a substantial risk of loss in futures and Forex trading. Online trading of stocks and options is extremely risky. Assume you will lose money. Don’t trade with money you cannot afford to lose.

The analysis in this material is provided for information only and is not and should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security.
To the extent that this material discusses general market activity, industry or sector trends, or other broad-based economic or political conditions, it should not be construed as research or investment advice.
To the extent that it includes references to specific securities, commodities, currencies, or other instruments, those references do not constitute a recommendation by Global Accountancy Institute, Inc. or Global Financial Engineering, Inc. to buy, sell or hold such investments.
This material does not and is not intended to take into account the particular financial conditions, investment objectives, or requirements of individual customers.
Before acting on this material, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, as necessary, seek professional advice.

A Top Down Approach in analyzing $BTC as at December 5,2021
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A Top Down Approach in analyzing $BTC as at December 5,2021

Bitcoin is the world’s most-traded cryptocurrency which represents a massive share of the cryptocurrency market. It was the first cryptocurrency that was introduced to the public and has therefore the most developed infrastructure. It is often considered to be a trendsetter in the cryptocurrency world. Bitcoin essentially created an alternative asset class and can be used in portfolio hedging strategies especially during the turbulent markets. (Source: Trading View)

Assuming that the Monthly Chart represents the long term trend. I would treat the pullback from 68911.54 as a correction and not a change of trend which is bullish since the current price of 48862 is above the 8EMA

Let us now step down to the Weekly Chart:
Assuming that this represents the Medium Term Trend the aggressive bounce from my Weekly Forward Line at 41852.31 is a very bullish sign if we close the week above 50927. In light of this I am still treating this as a normal correction

If we use the Daily Chart to represent Short Term Trend, We can treat the break from 58594 as a bearish signal targeting the Monthly Support 2 at 44163. The $BTC bears would have achieved this target.

Bitcoin’s slump to low of  $42,391 on some brokers platform meant that it had tumbled over 25% peak to trough on a 24-hour basis.

The big question is: Will the demand exceed supply  at this level to push price above previous high… Only time will tell..

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Trading Risk Disclaimer

Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to trade foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

Futures trading involves the potential for substantial risk of loss as well as substantial gains, and is not suitable for every investor. The highly leveraged nature of futures trading means that small market movements will have a great impact on your trading account and this can work against you, leading to large losses or can work for you, leading to large gains. If the market moves against you, you may sustain a total loss greater than the amount you deposited into your account.

You are responsible for all the risks and financial resources you use and for the chosen trading system. You should not engage in trading unless you fully understand the nature of the transactions you are entering into and the extent of your exposure to loss. If you do not fully understand these risks you must seek independent advice from your financial advisor. All trading strategies are used at your own risk. It is your responsibility to confirm and decide which trades to make. Trade only with risk capital; that is, trade with money that, if lost, will not adversely impact your lifestyle and your ability to meet your financial obligations.

U.S. Government Required Disclaimer – Commodity Futures Trading Commission. Futures and options trading has large potential rewards, but also large potential risk. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in the futures and options markets. Don’t trade with money you can’t afford to lose. This is neither a solicitation nor an offer to Buy/Sell futures. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed on this website. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of future results.

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