Engineered Defaults
The Self-Judging Machine, Paper IV. Why a trading system should neither wait for evidence nor fit to it: derive the default, bound it, and let evidence earn every change.
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Public Doctrine Series
The Martingale Ledger
The Self-Judging Machine, Paper I. Why a trading system's closed results flatter it, and the century-old theorem that tells the truth on day one.
ReadWho Collects the Toll
The Machine Readings, Paper VIII. A liquidity provider’s small edge becomes near-certain through frequency; the same arithmetic condemns a taker whose toll exceeds its edge. Why a machine must make its edge positive before it makes it frequent.
ReadThe Toll and the Clock
The Machine Readings, Paper VII. With the bank and the stop fixed at birth, speed decides when a position resolves and the cost of entering decides which way the book goes: why a law keyed on the toll needs no clock.
ReadThe Engineered Monetary Framework
The whole Monetary Engineering series in one specification: the policy rule, the instruments beside it, the inflation target, the mortgage reset cap and the fiscal arm, with the conditions under which each rule holds and the evidence behind every one. The place to start.
ReadFiscal Space Is a Price
When public debt carries a risk premium, what decides whether a fiscal backstop is safe is the marginal cost of the next point of debt, not the debt ratio. An eigenvalue condition separates convergence from a doom loop, and a rule that obeys it cuts sovereign crises by more than nine-tenths.
ReadThe Backstop at the Floor
A fiscal rule written into law in advance, firing only when the interest rate is pinned at its floor, removes the deflation trap and costs nothing elsewhere. Its debt converges only if the government consolidates as monetary room returns, and with it in place an economy needs about a point less room.
ReadThe Half-Credible Economy
The engineered monetary framework tested under forward-looking expectations. It beats the best conventional rule at every forward weight once its mortgage easing is bounded, and partial credibility proves more dangerous than none: the room an economy needs is four to five points, not four.
ReadRoom Above the Floor
The inflation target is not one number for every country: it is the room an economy needs above the interest-rate floor. As revised later in the series, four to five minus the neutral real rate for a central bank acting alone and three to four with a fiscal backstop in law, lower where mortgages float, and never paid for by borrowers or bank capital.
ReadThe Better Ways
A monetary framework rebuilt on the levers that survived testing. Against the strongest conventional interest-rate rule it serves households and price stability at once: seven tests set in advance, seven passed.
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