Global Accountancy Institute Micro Trend Trades Analysis for Bitcoin
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Global Accountancy Institute Weekly Commentary for Bitcoin by Dr. Glen Brown

Updated: September 3, 2022

Bitcoin is the world’s most-traded cryptocurrency which represents a massive share of the cryptocurrency market. It was the first cryptocurrency that was introduced to the public and has therefore the most developed infrastructure. It is often considered to be a trendsetter in the cryptocurrency world. Bitcoin essentially created an alternative asset class and can be used in portfolio hedging strategies, especially during turbulent markets. (Source: Trading View)

At Global Accountancy Institute, Inc., we believe that each trade should have a name. Hence within our trading models, we have four(4) types of trades that we execute daily.

These are:

  • Global Micro-Trend Trades
  • Global Short-Term Trend Trades
  • Global Medium-Term Trend Trades
  • Global Long-Term Trend Trades.

The Global Micro-Trend Trades are executed by our Proprietary Global Algorithmic Trading Software(GATS) using Sub-System #0,#1 & #2 which trade in the direction of our Four Hour Time Bars(FHTB) with a Trailing Stop Loss given by four(4) times the Daily Average True Range(DATR) using period 25.

The Global Short-Term Trend Trades are executed by our Proprietary Global Algorithmic Trading Software(GATS) using Sub-System #3  which trade in the direction of our Daily Time Bars(DTB) with a Trailing Stop Loss given by five(5) times the Daily Average True Range(DATR) using period 25.

The Global Medium-Term Trend Trades are executed by our Proprietary Global Algorithmic Trading Software(GATS) using Sub-System #4 which trade in the direction of our Weekly Time Bars(WTB) with a Trailing Stop Loss given by six(6) times the Daily Average True Range(DATR) using period 25.

The Global Long-Term Trend Trades are executed by our Proprietary Global Algorithmic Trading Software(GATS) using Sub-System #5 & #6 which trade in the direction of our Monthly Time Bars(MTB) with a Trailing Stop Loss equal to seven(7) and eight(8) times the Daily Average True Range(DATR) using period 25.

Our Global Algorithmic Trading Software (GATS) #5 on September 03, 2022, indicates the following for Bitcoin

The Long Term Trend (LTT): Bearish
The Medium Term Trend (MTT): Bearish
The Short Term Trend (STT): Bearish
The Micro Trend (MT): Bearish

We are currently Bearish on Bitcoin and hence decide to execute a long term Bearish trade with a potential trade entry signal as follows:

Global Potential Trade Entry Signal #1:17575
Global Maximum Catastrophe Hard Stop Loss GAP:6613
Global Maximum Catastrophe Trailing Stop:6613
Global Minimum Profit Target: 6613
Global Maximum Profit Target: 13226

Current Price as at September 03,2022:19788

Bitcoin could drop by a further $6613 to a low of $13,175 within a few weeks if we break the current support level at $17575.
$13175 is a dangerous level since many bulls will give up and sell Bitcoin.

RISK WARNING!

There is a substantial risk of loss in futures and Forex trading. Online trading of stocks and options is extremely risky. Assume you will lose money. Don’t trade with money you cannot afford to lose.

The analysis in this material is provided for information only and is not and should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security.
To the extent that this material discusses general market activity, industry or sector trends, or other broad-based economic or political conditions, it should not be construed as research or investment advice.
To the extent that it includes references to specific securities, commodities, currencies, or other instruments, those references do not constitute a recommendation by Global Accountancy Institute, Inc. or Global Financial Engineering, Inc. to buy, sell or hold such investments.
This material does not and is not intended to take into account the particular financial conditions, investment objectives, or requirements of individual customers.
Before acting on this material, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, as necessary, seek professional advice.

A better way to set Stop Losses
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A better way to set Stop Losses by Dr. Glen Brown

 

Your Stop Loss should be based on the Volatility Exposure(VE) of the financial instrument .

Volatility is the  rate at which the price of a financial instrument  increases or decreases for a given set of returns.

How do we measure Volatility of a financial instrument?

Volatility is measured by calculating the standard deviation of the annualized returns over a given period of time. This shows the range to which the price of a financial instrument may increase or decrease. Hence, Volatility measures the risk of a financial instrument.

Within the Global  Algorithmic Trading Software(GATS), We use Volatility to  indicate the pricing behavior of the financial instrument which help us to estimate the fluctuations that may happen within different timeframes.

We use the PATS Average True Range(ATR) indicator to set the stop loss and profit target for the various subsystems and strategies.

At Global Financial Engineering, we believe that your stop loss should be based on the number of Volatility Exposure Periods (VEPs). 

For example: Using Average True Range(ATR) with period 200 with a conservative risk % model:

**27VEPs  is assigned to the based system which runs on the 1 minute chart where the default risk is set at 0.01% of free equity

**24VEPs is assigned to system #1 which runs on the 5 minutes chart, where the default risk is set at 0.02% of free equity

**21VEPs is assigned to system #2 which runs on the 15 minutes chart, where the default risk is set at 0.0.03% of free equity

**18VEPs is assigned to system #3 which runs on the 30 minutes chart, where the default risk is set at 0.04% of free equity

**15VEPs is assigned to system #4 which runs on the 60 minutes chart, where the default risk is set at 0.05% of free equity

**12VEPs is assigned to system #5 which runs on the 240 minutes chart, where the default risk is set at 0.06% of free equity

**9VEPs is assigned to system #6 which runs on the Daily chart, where the default risk is set at 0.07% of free equity

**6VEPs is assigned to system #7 which runs on the Weekly chart, where the default risk is set at 0.08% of free equity

**3VEPs is assigned to system #8 which runs on the Monthly chart, where the default risk is set at 0.09% of free equity

The Global Algorithmic Trading Software(GATS) will use the above inputs to calculate the position size of each financial instrument.

 

 

RISK WARNING!

There is a substantial risk of loss in futures and Forex trading. Online trading of stocks and options is extremely risky. Assume you will lose money. Don’t trade with money you cannot afford to lose.

The analysis in this material is provided for information only and is not and should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security.
To the extent that this material discusses general market activity, industry or sector trends or other broad-based economic or political conditions, it should not be construed as research or investment advice.
To the extent that it includes references to specific securities, commodities , currencies, or other instruments, those references do not constitute a recommendation by Global Accountancy Institute,Inc. or Global Financial Engineering,Inc. to buy, sell or hold such investments.
This material does not and is not intended to take into account the particular financial conditions, investment objectives or requirements of individual customers.
Before acting on this material, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, as necessary, seek professional advice.