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Gold Futures Trade Analysis by Dr. Glen Brown using Base Trend (BT) Trading Strategy

When I embarked on this journey to evaluate our Gold futures trade executed on September 28, 2023, I was driven by a precise methodology – the Base Trend (BT) Trading Strategy. This strategy, as many seasoned traders may know, is a meticulously crafted tool that uses a blend of advanced indicators, seamlessly fusing them to extract the best possible outcome from the market.

On that particular day, the price of Gold futures stood at 1873.86. Relying on my strategy, I received a sell signal, which was reinforced by several critical indicators:

  1. EMA Zones: The color-coded EMA Zones were a clear pointer, showing a Bearish Market Structure. Especially notable were the Salmon EMAs (EMA 90 to EMA 140) and the Brick Red EMAs (EMA 141 to EMA 200) in the Trend Reassessment Zone and the Long-term Trend Zone, respectively.
  2. HAS Candles: The Global HAS (Heiken Ashi Smoothed) candles had taken a distinct red hue, another bearish signal.
  3. Time Bars: All the Global Time Bars for M60, M240, and M1440 were red, further echoing the bearish sentiment.
  4. Global I-Trend: The Green Line of the Global I-Trend slipped below the Red Line, validating the sell signal.
  5. ADX: A clear indication came from the Global ADX, which crossed the 20-mark.
  6. GMACD Indicator: All its signals – from the Signal, Main Trend, to the Major Trend Indicator – reflected a Downward Trend. This was supported by the GMACD Settings, particularly with the Fast Length (6), Slow Length (9), and Signal Length (3) parameters.

Now, for trade execution and management, our trusty Global Automated Trading System (GATS) took charge. Keeping risks in check, it established a Default Maximum Percentage Risk Per Trade at a prudent 2%. Furthermore, it adeptly set an Adaptive ATR Trailing Stop, calculated at 12 times the M60 Average True Range (ATR) using a period of 40. This not only maximized our potential gains but ensured they were in line with a Reward-to-Risk Ratio of 3:1. Our calculated exit was set at 1767.84.

However, as of now, the current price seems to be hovering at 1874.93, and our Adaptive ATR trailing stop has shifted to 1909.05. This indicates some market resistance or possibly a brief reversal.

In reflection, I appreciate the intricacies and the strength of the Base Trend (BT) Trading Strategy. The methodical approach it offers, combined with the real-time agility of the GATS, gives traders like me a comprehensive tool to navigate the volatile waters of the Gold futures market. While every trade has its dynamics, the core principles remain – detailed analysis, trust in your strategy, and risk management. I look forward to seeing how this trade further unfolds and using the insights for future endeavors.

Gold Futures Trade Update: Aggressive Trade Management and Break-Even Point (BEP) Activation

Today, September 29, 2023, the gold market showcased a notable price of $18,855.53. With the market’s dynamic movements and our continuous aim to maximize returns while safeguarding our position, an aggressive trade management strategy is paramount.

As the head of the trading division and in line with our strategic vision, I’ve taken the initiative to direct our automated trading system, GATS, to employ a critical feature — the Break-Even Point (BEP) activation. This decision is rooted in our comprehensive strategy that focuses on risk mitigation and profit protection.

The mechanics of the BEP feature are straightforward yet profoundly impactful:

  1. Initial Risk Calculation: At the trade’s execution, there’s an inherent risk, determined by the difference between our entry point and the initially set ATR adaptive trailing stop.
  2. 36.9% Movement: The BEP feature triggers once the gold price shifts by 36.9% of this initial risk. This percentage is not arbitrary; it’s calculated based on our extensive market analysis, historical data, and risk tolerance.
  3. ATR Trailing Stop Adjustment: With the aforementioned price movement, the Adaptive ATR Trailing Stop is promptly adjusted to our break-even point, effectively ensuring that, from this point onward, the position is protected from a loss. This break-even point is our initial entry price.
  4. Continuous Trailing: Post the BEP adjustment, the ATR Trailing Stop will continue its regular tracking but with an added buffer — it’ll trail by 369 points.

Today, due to this feature activation and the calculated market movements, our Adaptive ATR Trailing Stop now stands firmly at $1858.53.

In essence, this decision ensures that we’re playing on the front foot. We’re not just passively observing market movements, but actively taking steps to ensure our position is guarded. We’re capitalizing on positive market shifts, while simultaneously ensuring that our downside is limited.

It’s these strategic interventions and our unwavering commitment to innovative trade management techniques that continue to position us at the forefront of the trading landscape.


About the Author:

Dr. Glen Brown is an esteemed figure in the finance and trading industry, with over 25 years of unparalleled experience. Holding the title of President & CEO at both Global Accountancy Institute, Inc. and Global Financial Engineering, Inc., Dr. Brown spearheads innovations that bridge accountancy, finance, investments, trading, and technology. With a Ph.D. in Investments and Finance, his prowess extends beyond leadership, manifesting in roles like Chief Financial Engineer, Head of Trading & Investments, Chief Data Scientist, and Senior Lecturer. Dr. Brown’s blend of academic depth and practical expertise makes him a beacon of knowledge and a trusted voice in the intricate world of trading and finance.

Risk Disclaimer:

The information provided in this article is for educational and informational purposes only. It should not be construed as investment advice, an endorsement, or an offer or solicitation to buy or sell securities. Every investment carries inherent risks, and past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Always conduct thorough research and seek professional advice before making any trading or investment decision. Neither Dr. Glen Brown nor any affiliated entities bear responsibility for any losses that arise from using the information presented.